Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Dad Vail Fours and Eights Revisited

Last year around this time I attempted to answer a small debate going on in the comments to a Dedicated Lightweight Programs post. The issue was whether the light fours or light eights were more competitive at Vails. The answer, as you might imagine, was "It depends." There were many more entries in the fours event but the eights were closer to the speed of the heavy eights. In 2006, there were still many more light fours entries than eights (20 vs. 3) but the winning light four was also closer in speed to its heavyweight counterpart than the winning light eight - 2.9% slower vs. 5.4%. Last year the respective percentages were 3.3% vs. 2.5%.



To provide some context for this kind of comparison I looked at other races as well as world records and I'll do the same thing again. At Sprints, the light four was only 0.7% off the heavy four while the light eight was 5.8% off the heavy eight. The percentages for the prior year were 2.3% and 5.1%. The fours at Sprints were a bit of an aberration because the four from Princeton that had been dominant all year crabbed in the heat and was relegated to the petites. As a result, although that boat's time (which I used here) was faster than the grand final winner's, the next boat was so far back that it was not pushed at all. Because there are no light fours or eights at Worlds, I used doubles and quads as proxies last time and we'll look again because the record have changed. The light 2x is 2.8% slower than the heavy 2x and the light 4x is 3.5% slower than the heavy 4x.



All these numbers mean that the light eights still have some distance to make up before they are comparable to their elite counterparts and both elite and college women are slower than their heavyweight counterparts than are the light men. The fours, however, are closer to the elites' gap. As far as Vails, as measured by the heavy fours, the light fours seem to have been faster this year and given the eights' drop-off, that event seems to have been more competitive than the eights. In fairness to the eights winner, Dayton, it may have been that the field just wasn't strong enough to give them a good run and if a faster boat had entered the times may have been much quicker. This was a year when the light eight field split between Dad Vail and ECAC, only to have ECAC cancel the event. (This is a tangent, I know, but that state of affairs should not be tolerated. The competing lightweight coaches should agree on which event to attend or one of the regattas should step up and organize the crews.)



Just to round out the analysis, on the erg the light women's record is 7.3% off the heavyweight record, a smaller gap than the light men to heavy men (which is 7.6%). Maybe lightweight women really are better on the water than on the erg!





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6 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think we have to take in account who is in the V4 and V8 boats as well as who is coaching them.

Being close to the V4's when they are dominated by club teams with volunteer coaches and walkon athletes is a comletely different ballgame compared to the V8's where current and former National Team coaches are coaching recruited athletes who have been rowing since 9th grade. Meant with absolutely no disrespect to Penn St. because winning the 4 is a very big deal...but split up the V8's and it could potentially open things up. My opinion...

Anonymous said...

Looking at Sprints time comparisons isn't necessarily helpful because there are two 8s per team before the heavy 4s at Sprints, and only one 8 per team before the light 4s... so it would make sense that the light 4s would be closer to the heavy times than the light 8s.

Anonymous said...

speed is speed, period. it doesn't matter how long you've been rowing. technique wise, yes. but you can row for two hundred years and still be slow if you don't have the power. and this is coming from one of those kids that rowed before high school.

JW Burk said...

Thanks for the excellent comments. I think you all correctly point out some of the flaws with this kind of analysis. Quite honestly I forgot about how the 2V would figure in at Sprints and if I remembered I probably would have mentioned it. (Nonetheless, last year the difference in fours was fairly close to pattern.) I do think it's useful to take this kind of look, as long as we know what we're looking at (these comments help in that regard).

Anonymous said...

I realize I should have posted a reply much earlier but after rereading the comment by "annonymous" on December 13 I can't help but feel slightly irritated with their attitude toward club programs. The fact that club athletes pay their way through each season and do not get recruited has little to do with the time and energy the athletes put in. As a club athlete I feel as though we practice just as much as any "varsity" athlete and in most cirumstances have felt as though my team mates have more heart and drive than the varsity boats we compete against. The fact of the matter is that both the 8s and 4s race hard - just because a club team can't recruit 8 girls small enough to fill an 8 doesn't mean their 4 couldn't kick butt any day of the year. Being on a club team gives us extra motivation to prove ourselves among the "big schools." and I would say we're doing a pretty good job. That being said, nothing is more exciting than an 8 race and my hope is that as lightweight rowing grows, more club teams will be able to outfit an 8 - we'd all like a chance to compete with the 8s at Vails and IRAs!

Anonymous said...

And get your schools straight, please. Penn State did not with the Light 4 race at Dad Vail. Nova SE came in first, with Pitt and VT close behind.